Deadweight lamb prices have soared by more than 20 per cent in the last nine weeks with increased consumer demand around religious festivals and a tightening of supply to market playing a significant part.
Nine consecutive weekly price rises have carried the current deadweight SQQ average for lambs across GB to almost £7.90/kg, an increase of £1.74 since the first week of 2024, the new edition of Hybu Cig Cymru-Meat Promotion Wales’ (HCC) Market Bulletin reveals.
The latest figure, for the week ending 16th March, exceeded the highest price recorded last year of around £7.43/kg in May and is notably higher than historical averages by some 50 per cent.
A tightening of supply and seasonal religious festivals, where lamb is traditionally eaten, have contributed to the escalating prices, reported Glesni Phillips, HCC’s Intelligence, Analysis & Business Insight Executive. “Peak consumption of lamb is usually seen during religious festivals, and this year both Easter and Ramadan – the Islamic festival which drives demand for proteins such as chicken and lamb- occur in March,” explained Glesni.
“These events, coupled with both the UK and Welsh sheep breeding flocks being in decline, mean the supply of lambs coming on to the market at the moment is tight when compared to year-earlier levels and current demand levels,” she said.
She said throughput data from Defra for the May 2023-February 2024 period indicated that a total of 10.2million lambs have been processed in the UK so far this year, which is similar to year-earlier levels, despite the June survey revealing the lamb crop was some six per cent smaller than year-earlier levels. “This does indicate that there are a limited number of lambs remaining on the ground,” Glesni said.
Trade patterns have also provided some encouragement to the domestic market, with HCC estimates of HMRC data revealing that sheep meat exports from Wales were strong in 2023 – up ten per cent in value terms to total £190.9 million. “This suggests that, despite minimal economic growth across World markets due to inflation levels, there continues to be demand for lamb in our export countries,” said Glesni.
She thought the trading environment for 2024 will remain a competitive marketplace.
“Looking further ahead, there are more key festival dates in 2024; the festival of Qurbani- ‘the festival of feast’- for instance, is set to occur during mid-June and the Welsh Sustainable Farming Scheme proposals could also put further pressure on numbers,” predicted Glesni.
